The world is now in a critical phase of global warming: average temperatures are very likely to temporarily exceed 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels at least once in 2026–2030, and the next five years are expected to remain at or near record warmth.

Current global snapshot

Near‑term temperature outlook: Annual global mean temperatures for 2026–2030 are projected to average between 1.3 °C and 1.9 °C above 1850–1900, and there is a very high probability (≈91%) that at least one year in 2026–2030 will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C.

Decadal context: The period since 2015 is the warmest decade on record; 2024–2026 are among the hottest years measured and 2026 has a high chance of setting new annual records.

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